FanPost

I believe and here's why....

They call me....Pollyanna!

Well actually they call me NotOpie, but I tend to be one of those guys that remains mostly hopeful for the home team. I'm that way for the Carolina Panthers and I'm especially that way for the Carolina Hurricanes.

However, this year I've had a lot of time to mull over that eternal optimism, review other's pessimism, and pretty much come to my same typical conclusion...that is, I believe that we will make the playoffs this year and perhaps even make a bit of a run. Here's why:

  1. Our top 6 forwards have the potential to be one of the best groups in the conference. Now potential is a big "if" word, but stick with me here. Eric Staal, Alex Semin, Jiri Tlusty (yes, I'm getting the band back together), Jordan Staal, Jeff Skinner, and Elias Lindholm are a very, very good group. If you assume that Eric, Alex, and Jiri form one trio and Jordan, Jeff, and Elias, the other there's some interesting commonality across the lines. In each case two of the three players on each line are well known two-way players (yes, Alex Semin is and always has been defensively responsible; Lindholm came to us as a highly regarded two-way player). Eric can be solid defensively if he puts in the effort and the end of last year saw Jeff taking steps forward in the defensive zone. These lines can score in bunches and have proven to be dependable offensive weapons. So realistically these lines should match up well with any other Top 6 in our division and even conference.
  2. Expect bounce-back years from most of last year's key laggards and expect noticeable steps forward from youngsters. It would be an absolute dream if Eric Staal, Jordan Staal, Alex Semin, and Jiri Tlusty all had career years. However, it would be just fine if they merely met their career averages. If the Top 6 minus Elias all came back to their career averages they would account for 132 goals, 150 assists, and 282 points. Add a modest 15 and 25 from Lindholm and our top six produces plenty of offense with over 300 points.
  3. Look for significant growth from two key pieces: Elias Lindholm and especially Riley Nash. Nash has improved every year offensively. His overall game has improved too, but there's room to grow at both ends of the ice. It is not out of the realm of consideration that Riley ends up the year with 12-15 goals and 22-29 assists. A 35 point, 3rd line center would be very solid. I expect Lindholm to be even better. I saw lots of chemistry between he and Skins. I also saw periodic chemistry between those two and Jordan Staal (I don't believe they were given enough time to gel especially considering it was Lindholm's rookie year). I've said elsewhere 45-50 points is where I think Elias ends up this year.
  4. Two of these five will make noise at the NHL level this year: Zach Boychuk, Chris Terry, Ryan Murphy, Victor Rask, and Brock McGinn. It would not surprise me to see a 3rd line of Boychuk/Rask/Nash. Nor would it surprise me later in the season to see a 3rd line of Tlusty/Nash/McGinn. I really believe that Victor Rask doesn't want to play all year in Charlotte this year nor do I believe that Zach Boychuk will spend any time in Charlotte. I think that McGinn forces his way into the conversation by January. And I just like Chris Terry, who has, in workman-like fashion, continued to grow and do his job well. A lot of the negative speculation ignores the fact that the guys who were Checkers last year are a year older, more experienced, and more skilled.
  5. There is a trade coming....and the return back to the Canes may not be an NHL ready player. I've expressed my interest in us getting Josh Bailey. I think he represents the type of size, skill, and two-way responsibility we would want and need as a 3C. I believe he would benefit from a change of scenery. I just don't think we'll get him, if for no other reason, salary concerns. We have too many defensemen. That's a fact. I think we're pretty happy with our long term stable of defensemen too. But I just don't see room for a guy like Jay Harrison. He's Tim Gleason with a little less snarl (but perhaps a little bit more hockey sense). He's an older, slower version of Brett Bellemore (with a little better shot). In that he's a 3rd pairing guy with experience. He's not highly coveted, but could be a solid piece in any deal. However, I believe we won't get an NHL player back because, I think Jay goes to clear a little more salary. So my prediction is that he goes for a mid-level prospect and/or a pick. I also think Gerbe could be in a lot of trade discussions as well. I just don't have a feel for what he's going to bring this year.
  6. We will be active in the trade market before and/or during the deadline. Let's face it if we stink, we've got some interesting and attractive pieces to be moved (Tlusty, Gleason, perhaps Ward, perhaps McClement) at the deadline. But I don't believe we will be in that position. I think we'll be buyers. And if my Jay Harrison scenario above comes to pass, then we'll have plenty of cap space to make a move or two. One of the things that Jim Rutherford did well was make moves earlier in the season. The Doug Weight move was brilliant. I believe Ronnie took all of that in. If we're in the conversation in January (and by conversation I mean actually a playoff team), then I believe we'll make moves to solidify that. We've realistically got two or three more prime years from Eric, Alex, and Cam. We'll want to push hard if we have that type of shot. It is at this point where guys like Tlusty and Ryan Murphy (both likely with other pieces) may become serious chips in a deal, returning the big bodied winger or the top 4 defenseman that we'll want for a playoff run.

So that's the scenario that give's me reason to be a believer. I believe that one of Eric and Alex gets back to their career average and the other exceeds by a bit. I believe the same of Jiri and Jordan. I believe that both Nash and Lindholm continue their growth. And I think Skinner get's his points regardless. I think the defense is an adequate "by committee" group with both Liles and Gleason exceeding expectations. Finally, I think we have a minor goalie battle, ending up with a 1a/1b tandem and a game split along the lines of 37/45 with Khudobin getting more starts.


To that end I believe we slot into 3rd place in the Metro with Rangers finishing ahead of us and the Caps finishing behind us (but securing a wildcard berth in the playoffs).


So there you have it, my reasons for "rose-colored" glasses. I'd love to hear your feedback.