So the Canes end up picking 8th Overall going into the Draft. I am extremely excited, let me explain why through my Mock Draft:

1) Columbus Blue Jackets - Nail Yakupov

Easiest pick they will ever make. Yakupov is a future superstar of superstars. Deadly sniper, world-class skater, no fear of him bolting to Russia, really Yakupov is the complete package

2) Edmonton Oilers - Ryan Murray

Grigorenko is very tantalizing to them, however in the end Edmonton decides to shore up their defense with an NHL ready D in Murray who is as safe and consistent as they come. He will never be hell of skates or have the flash a D like Matt Dumba will have, but his calming influence is just what the doctor ordered for Edmonton.

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The recent Draft I think has opened the door for Hurricanes for boldness that has some intriguing possibilities.

Edmonton has won the draft but in practical terms they cannot afford to pay for three 1st line elite talent within a few years. That would force them into a payroll heavy forwards payroll scenario which will hurt them in other areas. In the ideal world they need an elite defenseman, and a puck-moving one ideally.

We have such a player in Joni Pitkanen. I have been a supporter of keeping Pitkanen on the team. The reason was simple…..no current defenseman could replace all the things Joni brings to the table. However, with the number of developing D and the rise of Faulk things have changed. Joni can be replaced by committee.

The irony is we acquired Joni from Edmonton. He did well there but his numbers are actually a little bit better here. The question, does Edmonton consider Joni a needed piece to their back end? Maybe……and maybe strong enough to consider an offer from JR for their #1 selection. After all, Joni was selected #4 overall in his draft. It can be sweetened by also flopping 1st round picks…their #1 for our #8 and Joni plus maybe a little more from them to level out the deal.

That frees up Joni’s salary! Part of a down payment for Suter if he becomes a free agent. I know it is counting and paying for your chickens before they hatch but it makes JR job much easier to do so.

The money set aside for the 1st line winger is preserved and if we get the #1 pick then it strengthens significantly the argument made to Parise that he should join the Hurricanes.

What do you think?

(editor's note: We will start moving some of the top Fan Posts to the front page like we have done in the past. This is a good one by PackPride17. In other news, I attended the exit interviews today and got some good quotes. I will have an article or two about those later tonight.)

Well, the regular season is over and yet again the Carolina Hurricanes will not be participating the postseason. A few good things did occur this season, but the bad was just too much to overcome. With the Masters occuring this past weekend, I remember a golf quote; "you can't win the tournament on the first day, but you sure can lose it". This is pretty much the pattern for the Hurricanes. They dig themselves into a hole at the beginning of the season and while they try, it's just too deep for them to get out of before the season is over. What I am going to do is share my ideas of this season and what needs to be done to have a successful 12/13 season.

In my opinion, the success and failure of the 12/13 season will really sit on the shoulders of 2 men; Jim Rutherford & Peter Karmanos. While money always helps to bring in the most talented players, the "construction" of the team is what determines the success. 5 of the 10 lowest payroll teams made the playoffs this season, while 2 of the top 5 highest payroll teams did not. You are much more likely to make the playoffs spending close to the cap, but it is no guarantee.

I look at the make-up of this team and see a limited number of top 6 forwards & top 4 defensemen. I also see an abundance of bottom six players, offensive defensemen, and prospects that are on the edge of being NHL ready. Say whatever you want to about Chad LaRose, but when 2 vastly different coaches determine that he is the best bet to play on the team's top line; then we obviously have a talent issue and that falls to JR.

(Click the jump for a review of the Canes' highly paid players, what to make of the Skinns and Finns line, and much, much more.)

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So the up-and-down 2011-2012 'Canes season is (thankfully) coming to a close. From the pain and suffering early to the glimmer of hope toward the end, it was a crazy ride. As a fan, I was suckered in from the get-go and totally engaged in the team's trials and tribulations, which made for some good theater. Thought it might be fun -- from a fan's perspective -- to point-out who were the targets of cheers and jeers all season long.

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Rebuilding the Hurricanes the Right Way

Last night's loss to Winnipeg in overtime was merely the last nail in the season's coffin. The season was over in November, 2011. Hockey miracles occur once a generation at best; and other than a hockey miracle, the Hurricanes were doomed to being a non-playoff team before the season was a quarter over. There is no reason for despair as far as I am concerned because now the Hurricanes organization is rebuilding the Hurricanes team and organization the right way.

GETTING THE RIGHT COACHING STAFF

The firing of Paul Maurice and the replacement of Maurice with Muller is a crossroads, transitional decision for the Hurricanes organization. Muller is the right man, at the right time, for the right reasons. Players know that Muller has all the requisite skills needed to take a team to the Stanley Cup. He has credence in a way that Maurice never could have. Muller's message of personal accountability and his insights into way to best use players to emphasize their strengths while de-emphasizing their areas of weakness already produced results. Adding John Mclean was another significant move for the Hurricanes organization. McLean has the ability to manage forward lines in a way Maurice could not and would not. I want to be clear, I do not think Maurice is an awful coach. I think Maurice's flaws were magnified by the fact he was with a team that was never going to be built the way he needs a team to play to make the playoffs under his mindset. Muller and McLean see the game as it unfolds. They see the reality of a particular game with the ebbs and flows; and they respond to the game itself. This flexibility of mind and clarity of perception is a tremendous advantage for the Hurricanes. I also think Brind'Amour brings an important skill set and perception of the game. I look forward to Brind'Amour having more input next season.

GETTING OFF THE STARVATION DIET AS FAR AS SALARY BUDGET

The Hurricanes organization for whatever reason was on a starvation diet in 2012-2013 for salary. The Hurricanes clearly needed an elite forward to go with Staal. Instead, on the budget the Hurricanes organization authorized, Jim Rutherford wound up with Ponikarovsky and Stewart. Ponikarovsky's skills fit best on the third line on a grinding, methodical, frankly mostly boring, team identity. He's in the right role for New Jersey. Stewart has not developed his game sufficiently to play on the first line. I still think Stewart has the skills to be a top six forward; and given some patience and more hard work on his part, he'll continue to improve. Stewart was not at the time and is not now an NHL All-Star. Staal deserves a wing who is already an NHL All-star caliber player. From what is being written and said, the Hurricanes organization is prepared to spend more money on salary and is prepared to go after first tier UFAs or to make trades to bring in an elite talent.

FIXING WHAT IS BROKEN WHILE NOT BREAKING WHAT IS WORKING

The Hurricanes organization and coaches have done an excellent job since Muller has arrived of fixing what is broken while avoiding undermining things that are working well. Ditching Kaberle was a huge step forward. Kaberle's signing was a mistake. I am convinced if Jim Rutherford has traded for James Neal for example, and never uttered the work Kaberle, Maurice would never have been fired. The single best moment for the future of the Hurricanes this year was signing Muller. The second best moment was trading Kaberle. The Hurricanes started putting players, and especially forwards, in positions and roles in which they could succeed. The third line of Nodl/Sutter/Dwyer and with Nodl's injury, Bowman/Sutter/Dwyer has been a very successful defensive line. Skinner/Jokinen/Ruutu has been and will continue to be a very successful second line. Ruutu's return from injury has been less than spectacular; but he's a beastly player who will continue to be a critical part of the Hurricanes for years to come. Tlusty and Staal have been quite successful as a duo on the first line. The fourth line continues to need some work; but the pieces are in place. Defensively, the Gleason/Allen, Pitkanen/McBain, Faulk/Harrison pairings have fit together well. Next season, even if another elite defenseman is not added, Ryan Murphy will likely make the Hurricanes roster. Dumoulin probably will be pushing for a spot by mid-season, assuming he is signed after his hockey season ends. Sanguinetti has been on a scoring tear. Joslin has worked hard to stay on the ice; and he is likely to be looked at hard as a defenseman in the pre-season.

SPECIFIC STEPS AND THOUGHTS TO IMPROVE THE TEAM

By far and away the best step the Hurricanes could take is to sign Parise to a long-term deal, assuming he goes to free agency. It would be a next era for the Hurricanes organization to do so. Failing that, the Hurricanes have somewhat limited options. They need to avoid trading away their first round pick in 2012. They have some assets they could move in the form of prospects, but those prospects have some more potential than NHL performance at this point. There are some possibilities, however, that would require painful choices. I have identified the following players as players who could and likely would be future stars for the Hurricanes: (1) Johansen; (2) Couturier; (3) Zibanejad; (4) Connolly; (5) Van Reimsdyk; and (6) Armia. Peter Mueller is an RFA this season and due to his injuries and concussion history, he is likely to be available at a reasonable cost. Mueller is more risky, but given his elite skills, he's probably worth the risk. Trading up to draft Galchenyuk is a step Jim Rutherford should seriously consider. There are three potential elite forwards in this season's draft: Yakupov, Girgorenko, and Galchenyuk. If Galchenyuk had not hurt his knee, he'd be in the conversation as the lottery pick. As it is, the Hurricanes are likely to be picking 9th or 10th. Faksa is the player I personally like best at that spot, assuming nobody like Forsberg or Galchenyuk or even Girgorenko fall that far. Every season there is a player like Fowler or Rask who fall below their real skill and potential level due to cold feet from the scouts and GMs. Ryan Suter is the defensive gem UFA. If the Hurricanes were able to sign both Parise and Suter, the team would be a top six tier team immediately. The major foundational pieces are in place. It's a matter of giving Muller and the coaching staff more talent. In addition to talent outside the organization being brought in, the natural progression of talent in the organization is going to provide help to the team. Dalpe and Rask I continue to believe are at present the team's highest limit forward prospects. Rask may well join the Charlotte Checkers once his lower body injury heals. Boychuk has the ability and his situation has been well-discussed. Nash is a very solid, rapidly improving center. Dadonov is also improving; and he has a tremendous skill set. I'm looking forward to seeing how much Brody Sutter has developed. Hofmann, too, will be a interesting player to follow; and he may be the sleeper of the group. Shugg is a scorer; who has been very successful at every level, but always manages to be under-rated when he starts out. The future is bright. The Hurricanes organization is an organization on the rise. The Hurricanes coaches are superb. The Hurricanes team is young, talented, and determined. The Hurricanes organization has the most depth and talent it has ever had.

It's a great time to be a Caniac.

Well, we down to the final 5 or 6 games in the NHL regular season and while the playoff picture is starting to clear up, where everyone will finish & their draft position is still up in the air. The Canes currently sit in 23rd in the league or the #8 draft pick (depending on how the lottery goes). They have 5 games remaining; 3 against likely playoff teams and 2 against teams that are likely to miss the postseason. Below is how I think the rest of the season might play out and what draft position we are likely to end up with.

I think it is pretty safe to say that Columbus will likely end up with the #1 pick, they are so many points behind that they cannot pass anyone. Edmonton is also likely to end up with a top 4 pick. They have 3 games remaining against teams fighting for a playoff spot plus 2 against the Ducks and 1 in Vancouver. Montreal is also likely to end up with a top 4 pick. They have a tough road back-to-back against the Rangers & Caps and also have to play us in Raleigh. The last team that I believe will be with a top 4 pick is the Wild. They have 6 games remaining; all against teams that are fighting for a playoff spot or positioning. IMO, it will be very tough for any of these teams to escape the bottom 4.

So now we turn our attention to the group that will most likely miss the playoffs, but is still shuffling around the draft pick order.

Carolina (77) - 5 games remaining
Winnipeg, New Jersey, @ Ottawa, Montreal, @ Florida
I kind of expect that the Canes get wins over Winnipeg & Montreal, lose to New Jersey, and lose in OT to either Florida or Ottawa. So the Canes get 5 additional points and finish the season with 82 and 33 regulation wins.

Winnipeg (78) - 6 games remaining
NY Rangers, @ Carolina, @ Tampa Bay, @ Florida, @ NY Islanders, Tampa Bay
Winnipeg ends the season with 4 of 6 on the road and they aren't as good away from the MTS. Couple that with home games against the Rangers and Lighnting, it looks to be a tough finale for the Jets. I expect them to win the last game against Tampa, but lose the rest. I think they might get to OT in one of the road games, but that's about it. They finish the season with 81 points and 32 regulation wins.

Tampa Bay (77) - 6 games remaining
@ New Jersey, Winnipeg, Washington, @ Montreal, @ Toronto, @ Winnipeg
The Lightning also finish the season with a bunch of road games, but I like their schedule a little more. I expect them to win at home against Winnipeg, in Montreal, and in Toronto. I think they do lose to New Jersey, Washington and the finale in Winnipeg. So they end the season with 83 points and 35 regulation wins.

Anaheim (75) - 6 games remaining
San Jose, @ Phoenix, Edmonton, @ Vancouver, @ Edmonton, @ Calgary
Anaheim is a funny team; they look bad, then look real good, and now their sort of ho-hum. I would imagine them beating Edmonton twice and getting a point against the Yotes & Flames. The finish the season with 81 points and 31 regulation victories.

New York Islanders (75) - 6 games remaining
Pittsburgh, Boston, Ottawa, @ New Jersey, Winnipeg, @ Columbus
The Isles have some difficult teams in there, but they have 4 home games and 1 on the road in Columbus. I even think they are playing pretty well lately, but teams will be fighting for playoff position and they mostly overmatch the Isles. I think Pittsburgh gets a little payback and Boston tries to find it's groove for the playoffs, so 2 losses there. I think NY gets at least 1 point against the Sens & Devils, then goes out and finishes the season strong with 2 wins. They end up collecting 6 more points to finish with 81 and 27 regulation wins.

Toronto (75) - 5 games remaining
Philadelphia, Buffalo, @ Buffalo, Tampa, @ Montreal
I think the Leafs are done for the year. They havent won at home since February and they don't seem to be playing with much energy. I have them losing to Philly, Buffalo twice, and Tampa. I do have them giving it their all and beating Montreal to end the season, but the Leafs end up with only 77 points and 30 regulation wins.

So in the end, here is my project draft order (not counting the lottery).
1. Columbus
2. Montreal
3. Minnesota
4. Edmonton
5. Toronto
6. NY Islanders
7. Anaheim
8. Winnipeg
9. Carolina
10. Tampa Bay

Of course anything can happen and any team can win or lose game, but I think this is a likely scenario. What do you guys/gals think?

Little did I know what it would take to look at franchise performance when I began this effort in mid-February. You can review that earlier post here because this fan post will attempt to build on that earlier one. That earlier post dealt with regular season performance for the last 10 years of all NHL franchises. This post is only dealing with playoff performance over that same period of time for all NHL franchises. Remember, my original objective was to find something easy to understand but yet logically sound. When I got to the end of this effort I realized I could look at both playoffs and regular season.

The playoff structure does not lend itself to an easy comparison of team performance since every team climbs a pyramid that only leaves one winner. One could say every team who did not win the Stanley Cup is a loser. Although technically true it is certainly not fair to teams who did achieve some success within the playoff structure. Many complicated calculations are possible to force rank the teams who made the playoffs but I selected a fairly simple measure which ranks according to the number of playoff wins a team achieves after it reaches the playoffs. It is an elegant measure because it gives ultimate credit to the Stanley Cup winner (16 wins) but gives no credit to those who made the playoffs but won no games in the first round. Credit is extended in the increments as teams achieve wins. The chart below provides a comparison over ten years and calculated the average number of wins in the extreme right hand column marked AvgRK . The average is a 10 year average even if a year had a zero wins. In this chart the teams are already forced ranked using the AvgRK column and the higher the number the higher the average number of playoff wins over this 10 year window.

Hurricanes Observation:

The Carolina Hurricanes have had a really good decade (from the 2000-01 until 2010-11 seasons) in the playoffs ranking 10th overall in the average number of wins and much higher than some teams who have done well over the last several years. Although the Hurricanes have a hard time getting through the regular season compared to other teams once they get into the playoffs they do much better than most teams.

Since a forced ranking for the regular season has been done and a forced ranking of the playoffs has now been done it is possible to merge these two results to look at relative performance of all franchises for both the regular season and playoffs. I decided to give equal weight to both regular season and the playoffs. I have no logic other than it appears teams "value" the playoffs in ticket prices at about the same level as the regular season. In other words you pay about the same for all playoff tickets to the Cup round than you do for the entire regular season. I guess there are valid arguments to split the value of regular season verse playoffs at other percentages like 40%-60% but that did not seem to be appropriate. However, if you are of mind, these numbers can be cut easily to accommodate your different perspective. That chart is below:

Summary

Overall, the Carolina Hurricanes rank 16th out of 30 franchises in their regular season and playoff performances over the last 10 years based on this simple view. Some would say that is better than they thought. Others would say you pay for what you get and then others would say the Canes franchise has achieved more than was expected based on what was spent. Those answers depends on the priorities of the person asking the question and their own personal philosophies. There are no smoking guns here but there are some positives as well as negatives on what this means. The past is what they did and the future can be vastly different than the past just based on applying different progressive or restrictive philosophies on franchise management.

I actually started this with a fan post on whether spending by a franchise can buy a Stanley Cup. You can find that fan post here. I am still not sure if I can even bridge from this information back to revenues. It is still of interest to me but there are still very large obstacles that have to be overcome in order to do that.

I hope this exercise provides a little more information for you.

Hi fellow Caniacs!

I am looking for a partner to share season tickets with next year. Currently, I am a 12-game package holder in Sec 130, lower level south where the Canes shoot twice. I REALLY like sitting there, so that's where I'd like to stay, either there or the opposite corner in Sec 123. Currently, the Canes are offering really good deals on the top 8 rows of lower level south, $45 per seat per game if you purchase the full season.

Here's my pitch. We each buy ONE full season ticket in our own name, side by side. Then we split the tickets to get two tickets to half the games. And we can split all the STH benefits like that skate around, STH party, etc. And with each of us having our own account, we can build our own priority in the Canes ticket system.

If any of this interests you, please post here or send me a private message. Thanks for reading.

(Mods, please accept my apologies if this post was not within board guidelines. If you need to delete, I understand entirely.)

In addition to the interview with Coach Muller on the NHL Network last night, EJ Hradek gave a solid minute of attention to the Canes and its fans: http://video.nhl.com/videocenter/console?catid=2&id=166809&navid=DL|CAR|home

I think the fans & attendance in general have been solid this year considering the circumstances. Can't wait until people stop talking about the team having a strong future to look forward to at the end of every season and the consistent Canes fans can finally give standing ovations at the end of hard-fought and meaningful games. (i.e. I'm not a firm believer in 'momentum' at the end of one season translating to success in the next...that's supposed to have happened the past 2 seasons for the Canes).

When I saw this video I almost choked on my beer. I understand the danger of chasing after things said by others not inside an organization so I do have a certain skepticism about this report. What I would like to do is just get a barometer reading on several things including a fan poll. First the link to the video.....

http://watch.tsn.ca/clip642562#clip642562

1. Do you think this report has some merit? Discuss this question in comments.

2. Do you think Parise and Suter are targets the Canes should pursue? Discuss this question in comments.

Take this fan poll please.......