2011-12 Exit Analysis: Patrick Dwyer
Defensive forwards are often the most under-appreciated players on most teams. What they do usually doesn’t show up in highlight reels or the scoresheet, but they play important roles on the team despite that. Patrick Dwyer, in particular, plays a very important role on the Hurricanes and some of the toughest minutes in the NHL. Although this probably isn’t news to those who are fans of the Hurricanes and watch most of their games, because there is a good chance that they know what Dwyer does and how his contributions help the team. How well does he play this role, though?
This season, Dwyer was Carolina’s best defensive forward and the key word there is "defensive." Dwyer is a great skater and plays a very sound and responsible game in his own end, which makes him a perfect fit for the team’s third line with Brandon Sutter. He actually played more minutes than he ever has before in the NHL, mainly because he logged a lot of time on the penalty kill and was trusted with top-nine minutes regularly. However, Dwyer’s offensive upside (or lack-there-of) make it difficult for him to become anything more than a third-liner in the NHL.
We’re going to take a closer look at Dwyer’s season after the jump.
Hurricanes GVT Values and Expectations
With advanced stats in hockey growing by the second, there have been a number of new metrics devised to judge and predict player performance. One of the most popular is Goals Versus Threshold (GVT) which measures how many goals a player is worth compared to a replacement level player. This stat was developed by the people at Hockey Prospectus and is broken down into three different parts: Offensive GVT, Defensive GVT and Shootout GVT. All three areas are looked at because the point of GVT is to find out who is contributing the most to wins. Goals lead to wins, so it is necessary to look at a player’s performance outside of his goal, point & plus/minus total. Goaltending is also looked at, but that is a completely different system.
A closer look at GVT and how the Hurricanes players performed by this stat is coming after the jump.
Sunday Speculation: Is He Worth an Offer Sheet?
During every offseason there is always some discussion about a particular RFA receiving an offer sheet. While this rarely happens, it is always an option. And with this summer's UFA market so slim, it could be the time the offer sheet option becomes more of a reality. So if this is the offer sheet offseason, what RFA's should the Hurricanes look at extending offer sheets to? While there are several interesting RFA names out there right now, not all will be available July 1st and not all would really fill the holes the Canes have. Players like Jamie Benn, Erik Karlsson, and T.J. Oshie will likely be resigned by their current team before free agency opens. And while players like Mike Green, Ryan O'Reilly, and Erik Johnson are very good players, we have good players that play similar roles. There are even certain players like Alexander Radulov and P.K. Subban, while both could offer the Canes upgrades in talent, they also come with some baggage that might not fit well in the locker room.
So what I have done, or tried to do, is come up with a short list of 6 players (with compensation estimates) that I believe could help improve the Hurricanes and might be available for an offer sheet come July 1st. Remember that each offer sheet comes with the penalty of losing draft picks depending on the compensation amount. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe all draft pick compensation would start with this year's NHL Draft. Last year's draft pick compensation rates were: a 2nd for a contract between $1.56 million & $3.13 million, a 1st & 3rd for a contract between $3.13 million & $4.70 million, a 1st, 2nd, & 3rd for a contract between $4.70 million & $6.26 million, (2) 1st, 2nd, & 3rd for a contract between $6.26 million & $7.83 million, and (4) 1st for any contract higher than $7.83 million.
After the jump I will try to break down why I believe these players will be available for an offer sheet, how they can help the Canes next season, and what contract/cap hit it will take to get them. So please take a look at these options and let me know your thoughts. Would you extend an offer sheet to any of these players? Do you believe they could help the Hurricanes? Is the compensation estimate I came up with close or way off? And is there another RFA that you would consider using an offer sheet on? It's time for everyone to put their Armchair GM hat on!
2011-12 Exit Analysis: Tim Brent
In an effort to improve the team's fourth line and performance at the face-off circle, GM Jim Rutherford decided to sign Tim Brent to a two-year deal which had a very low cap hit of $750k. Brent was coming off a solid season with the Toronto Maple Leafs and the thought was that he would help give the Hurricanes' fourth line some structure, possibly help their penalty kill and win a few face-offs. Brent ended up helping in only one of those three areas, but he contributed in a lot of other different ways, some of which not many expected.
Brent played on the fourth line for the majority of the season, but he also saw ample time on the powerplay and posted a career high 12 goals and 24 points. For someone who regularly plays fourth line minutes, that is very good and surpassed a lot of the expectations people had for Brent this season. Brent actually was a key part of the second powerplay unit being very effective playing the point there and it showed a side of his game that not many knew he had. He is expected to continue playing his role as the fourth-line center throughout next season but what are the chances that he has another year like this one? We will explore that issue and take a closer look at Brent's season after the jump.
Unrestricted Free Agents: The Southeast Division
Now we come to the UFA's in our own division, the Southeast. There are a number of potential UFA's from Southeast Division teams and they range from some that are very intriguing to standard role players to your run-of-the-mill career AHLers. The Capitals and Lightning have a pretty large number of UFA's that they must address this offseason. And while the Capitals are one of the top salary cap teams in the league, the other four teams are in the bottom half, with three of them being in the bottom 10. So while the free agent market this summer might not be filled with high quality players, these Southeast Division teams look like they will have money to spend if they so desire.
You probably know the drill by now, but just to reiterate. I broke down the UFA's by team with a small blurb on each player. If the UFA played in less than 20 games in 2011/2012, I simply listed them without a blurb. This list will very slightly because we will be looking at player from our own team. So instead of going after a particular person on July 1st, we must determine if we should & can resign some of our own. Up next on the UFA docket will be the Western Conference. I will start off with the Central Division and should have something up by Monday. Please take a look and let me know your thoughts on these potential free agents.
2011-12 Exit Analysis: Zach Boychuk
We are continuing our analysis of the Hurricanes season that was by going down the roster and today's subject is the team's first round pick from 2008, Zach Boychuk. I am sure that I'm not the only one who was hoping that this would be the season that Boychuk would blossom into a full-time NHL-er. With Erik Cole leaving and roster spots open, he had a good chance of at least making the team out of camp or being being called up sometime later in the season. Alas, played only 16 games with the Hurricanes this year and there are questions on whether or not he will be qualified next month or be granted RFA status.
There isn't a lot to write about what Boychuk did with the Hurricanes this season because his time in Raleigh was shorter than some of Joni Pitkanen's shifts, but there is plenty of talk about in regards to Boychuk's future with the organization. At 22, he is still growing as a player and had another solid season in Charlotte, but the fans and front office's patience with him is beginning to wear thin. After the jump, we will discuss what Boychuk did this year, what the future holds for him and whether or not it will be with the Hurricanes.
Who are Carolina's best shot blockers?
Shot blocking is something that is always fawned upon by media members as a vital skill to have if you want to go far. The recent playoff series between the Rangers and Capitals has magnified this point since both teams have limited the opposition's scoring chances by crowding up the areas in front of the net and not allowing any shots to get through. No one will doubt the importance of shot blocking, especially for teams who aren't good at controlling possession. It provides a way for a team to possibly make up for not having forwards capable of driving the play at a high rate and make things easier on their goaltenders. However, teams who block a lot of shots do have their issues.
Teams that end up blocking a lot of shots usually means that they are spending most of their time in their own zone, which isn't a good thing. If you were to look at the top shot blocking team's in the league, you'll probably notice that most of them aren't exactly good at driving possession. Another thing you will notice is that seven of the top ten teams in the NHL missed the playoffs, as well. It shows that while shot blocking is very important, it should be the only thing that is relied on to win games.
With that in mind, shot blocking is often used to judge how good a player is defensively but there are a lot of times when a team's leading shot blocker just ends up being on ice for a lot of shots against and is forced to get in the way of a lot of them. A better way to find out who is the best at shot blocking is to see how many shot attempts a player was on ice for and see what percentage of them he blocked. Thanks to Derek Zona and George Ays, we can do that. Although, there aren't many surprises with Carolina's players.
More after the jump
Unrestricted Free Agents: The Northeast Division
As promised, here is the second group of UFA's, guys from the Northeast Division. There are virtually no big names in this group, but there could still be a few good role players that might be able to help the Canes out next season. There are also a few "project" players that could interest JR, but most of these guys are bottom 6 or bottom pairing guys. Come July 1st, I don't expect to see many of these guys on the Canes radar, but surprises can happen. Especially if we have any trades this offseason and lose some role players, we might have to find a guy to play a certain role.
Again, what I did was break down the UFA's by team with a small blurb on each player. If the UFA played in less than 20 games in 2011/2012, I listed them without any blurb. The next Division on my list will be our own, the Southeast Division, which I will post on Thursday before starting on the Western Conference. Please take a look and let me know your thoughts on these potential free agents.

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