Carolina Hurricanes forward Alexander Semin supposedly had a down year last season. He ended up missing 17 games due to injuries, including a nagging wrist injury which at the minimum, aggravated the sniper throughout most of the season.
But if you look at the averages over the Russian's past four seasons, was he really that far off? (We will just use four seasons because it is more likely he will do again, what he has accomplished recently).
|Year||Games||Goals||Assists||Points||AVG G/G||AVG A/G||AVG P/G|
Semin's goal per game average of .34 last season was actually higher than his total goal per game average over the past four years, (.33). The assist total is where he dropped off.
"Sasha" proved that he was an excellent set-up man in his first stint with Carolina as he had 31 assists in just 44 games, good for a .70 assist per game average. Last season's average was less than half that. But are the assist totals Semin's fault or his linemates?
One big reason Semin's assist numbers went down were because Jiri Tlusty and Eric Staal's numbers were also down. (We will examine their point totals and averages soon).
The winger was getting a lot of criticism last year because the team wanted him to shoot more and score more, but he has a lot of skill and ability to set up his teammates and should be allowed to keep that option open as well.
Also, that criticism seems unfair, seeing that he was scoring goals at or above his previous four year average.
What can we expect next season?
First, we need to estimate how many games he will play and go from there. He has missed a lot of games the past four seasons, but did play most of the 44 games two years ago during the shortened season, so we will give him credit for a full, 82 game equivalent that year.
Taking that into consideration, he has averaged playing an equivalent of 72 games over the past four years.
Also, using his four year average for goals scored and assists earned, then it is reasonable to assume he will score 24 goals along with 32 assists for a total of 56 points. That gives him a points per game average of .77, right on his four year average.
Will he do better or worse than that? A total of 56 points is actually higher than he has gotten in any of the past four years, (except the 2012 pace), but since he was at a point a game pace two years ago, that is what pushed his average up.
Projection for Semin: 72 Games, 24 goals, 32 assists, 56 points.
Agree or disagree? Let me know in the comments.
Coming up, we will do the same for each of the Canes and see if we can project the team's scoring for the coming season. Patrick Dwyer is on deck.