A Look at the 13th Pick
The Carolina Hurricanes have the 13th overall pick in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft on Tuesday. The draft pick was originally the Toronto Maple Leaf’s pick and is nine slots higher than the Hurricanes’ original pick. The pick was transferred to the Hurricanes after the Leafs did not win the first overall pick as it was lottery protected in the Patrick Marleau trade.
We all knew that the second pick in 2018 was going to be a home run in Andrei Svechnikov, but what can we honestly expect out of the 13th pick? Well first we know that the pick probably won’t be jumping straight into the NHL. This usually only happens with the top two to three guys in each draft. However, the 13th overall pick still can bring in a huge talent that can change the organization.
The last time the Canes had the 13th overall selection was in 2016 when they selected Jake Bean with the pick. Other players to play for the Hurricanes who were the 13th overall pick include Ron Hainsey, Alex Semin and Jiri Tlusty. All three players played significant time in the NHL and proved to be impact players in one way or another.
The most successful player to come from the 13th spot is Dustin Brown, who has played over 1100 NHL games for the Los Angeles Kings.
When looking at this pick, we should also look at the players selected around the 13th overall pick. While many teams have similar draft boards higher up in the first round, when you get to the middle there can be more variance.
When looking at the 14th pick, the Boston Bruins have had success with the pick. In back-to-back years they selected Jake DeBrusk and Charlie McAvoy with McAvoy coming just one pick after the Hurricanes selected Bean in 2015. In that same draft the Islanders selected Mathew Barzal just two picks later at 15th overall.
The Canes had success themselves with the 12th overall pick in 2017 when they selected Martin Necas. This is the level of player that you are targeting with this pick.
When Will They Break Into the League
While McAvoy ended up playing the year after being drafted, that is an unlikely scenario and should not be expected out of this spot. Instead we can look at other recent middle first-round picks.
Necas is one of two players to come out of the middle of the first round in the 2017 draft to play in the 2019-2020 season, with the other being Nick Suzuki who was drafted ... 13th overall. DeBrusk, who we mentioned previously also had a two year wait before joining the NHL club. Another standout, Denis Gurianov, who had a breakout postseason, was drafted 12th overall in 2015 but made his NHL debut in 2018.
So, on average, players selected between in this range take two years to make the NHL team, and we can expect this player to come in to the roster in 2022 with anything earlier being a bonus.
What about Yaroslav Askarov?
Goaltenders are tricky when it comes to the draft. Some teams seem to have a ton of success with their goalies like the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Washington Capitals, but others aren’t. Goaltenders are notoriously hard to rank when it comes to their development and drafting which is why you don’t see a ton of goalies drafted in the first round.
Since 2000 there have only been 13 goaltenders taken in the first round with the last instance happening in last year’s draft when Spencer Knight was taken, you guessed it, 13th overall by the Florida Panthers. Five of these 13 goaltenders are still in the league with Ilya Samsonov being the most recently drafted of the bunch in 2015. Others still in the league are Marc-Andre Fleury (first overall), Carey Price (fifth overall), Jonathan Bernier (11th overall) and Andrei Vasilevskiy (19th overall).
With Askarov also only being 18 he would have a longer runway, more like Carter Hart or Ilya Samsonov, who were drafted in 2016 and 2015, respectively. Both made their NHL debut at the age of 22 and are now about to take the helm of their NHL teams. So while yes, it would be nice to take the top goalie prospect in the league, he is not going to make an immediate impact on the team.
Don Waddell and his team will have to make the call to take a goalie that can contribute in four years as a best-case scenario or try to take a player that will be on an entry-level deal that can help in half the time.