Halfway There: How the Canes stack up in the current playoff picture

The All-Star break presented the perfect halfway point in the 2021-22 season to pull together a lot of data from around the league to really see how teams were stacking up against one another.

Or, it would have if not for the 100+ postponed games around the NHL this season creating games-played gaps as high as nine and having some teams not quite at the halfway mark and then quite a few over it.

But it’s as good as it’s going to get, so it’s the reality that we will be working with and working around.

Regardless of that fact though, the truth is that the playoff picture has already started to take shape with the Eastern Conference teams practically figured out and most of the West starting to lock in a bid.

The Hurricanes are one of those virtually cemented teams in the East being a legitimate contender again. And with some key additions, the team seems ready for a longer run this time. But how do the Canes compare with the other playoff teams around the league?

Let’s take a look at some data for the current playoff picture.

The playoffs look to be featuring a couple of titans and especially in the East where, undoubtedly, a few good teams will be eliminated in the first round.

The Florida Panthers lead the league in points with the NHL’s best offense, but out West, the Colorado Avalanche sit at the top with the league’s best point percentage helped along by a top-10 offense and top-5 defense.

A few dark horse teams have made pushes into the playoff picture as well like the New York Rangers, led by the league-best goaltending of Igor Shesterkin, and the LA Kings and Anaheim Ducks, who are making jumps out of what should have been longer rebuilds.

The Carolina Hurricanes are sitting pretty, fourth in points and second in point percentage, and they will try to pull away with the Metropolitan lead and compete for the Presidents Trophy in the second half of the season.

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Offense

The Hurricanes are one of the top five teams in the league, and in line with that, are in the top five for most offensive stats.

Carolina actually leads the way in terms of high-danger chance creation and is scoring nearly as many goals as expected based on model predictions.

While Sebastian Aho’s 45 points — tied for 20th in the league — aren’t eye popping, the well roundedness of the Canes’ offense will bode well come playoff time.

Carolina has five players at 30+ points and nine with 20+ points. Only three teams have more players with 30+ points and only two teams have more players with 20+ points.

The depth is real down in Carolina.

To the surprise of nobody who has been keeping up with the rest of the league, the Panthers lead nearly every offensive stat along with having the NHL’s leading scorer, Jonathan Huberdeau, on the roster.

The Panthers look like an offensive juggernaut and that’s the main reason why they lead the league in points. Their revamped roster looks poised to do some damage and maybe finally win a playoff series for the first time in decades.

The Ducks, Blues, Predators and Rangers are the biggest points of intrigue offensively as all four sit in the bottom half of the league in terms of overall shot generation, the quality of chances and actual goal scoring.

All four have been carried by strong goaltending, which makes them prime candidates to keep an eye on in the second half and even into the playoffs.

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Defense

The potential Achilles’ heel of the Hurricanes is the play in their own zone as they don’t rate too highly in defensive analytics.

They limit total chances very well, mostly due to their possession heavy game, but they give up a ton of quality on those limited chances.

Rated 19th in high-danger chances against and 25th in expected goals against, it has been on ongoing issue in Carolina for the past few seasons and marks potentially the biggest area of need, however there might not be much that new personnel could do when it is more than likely a stylistic weakness.

The Canes play an aggressive press offense that encourages the defense to jump and pinch which raises the chances for odd-man rushes the other way and in their own zone, the Hurricanes play a man-on-man system which is only as strong as its weakest link.

Among the rest of the playoff teams, the Boston Bruins are the best defensive team, being the best at limiting both high-danger and overall chances. However, the defense hasn’t led to better results in terms of actual goals against, mostly due to the weak goaltending the Bruins have gotten.

Eight of the top-10 defensive teams in the league are in a playoff position and four of those were also in the top-10 in offense — Colorado, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay and Calgary — names to definitely keep track of. The other eight are nearly all below average or at least in the lower half of the league.

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Goaltending

The biggest reason why the Hurricanes’ defensive woes haven’t affected them too much though is because of the elite goaltending support they have gotten to mitigate that weakness.

Frederik Andersen has been playing at a Vezina level all season, being third in save percentage and second in wins and goals saved above expected. It isn’t just him either, as Antti Raanta has been great as well, but we’ll only be looking at starter stats as that is what matters in the playoffs.

Because as everyone knows, a hot goaltender is the key to playoff success.

It’s the biggest reason why the Tampa Bay Lightning were back-to-back champions and why the Montreal Canadiens were even in the Final at all last season.

And this season seems like it will be a battle between a lot of solid netminders with 13 of the top 15 save percentages being in a playoff position.

In terms of goals saved above expected, only four of the 16 starting goaltenders in a playoff position have less than 10 goals saved above expected and shockingly two of those goaltenders — Linus Ullmark and Ilya Samsonov — have a negative value.

Of the four teams in both the top-10 for offense and defense, only Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh are getting just as good goaltending.

Regardless, goaltending is the hardest position to predict and it will all be a matter of who can be the most consistent and then peak at the right moment.

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Special Teams

Because the rulebook mostly gets thrown out once the postseason starts, it’s much harder to score in the playoffs with everyone checking, holding and grabbing opponents. As such, every special teams opportunity that is actually handed out is that much more important.

The Hurricanes have had a few postseason runs sunk by poor power play performances, so it will be integral that they can be consistent heading into the postseason.

Scoring a quarter of the time on the man advantage, the Canes are in the right place so far with the added talent really helping to flesh out a second unit. That is also while having only the 17th most power play time per game on average.

Solidifying a second power play quarterback could be a big step, although Jaccob Slavin has done well in that spot this season.

However, looking at the rest of the playoff teams, there doesn’t seem to be much correlation between power play success and overall success so far, but again, that may be a different case come playoff time.

The number one penalty killing team in the league is none other than the Hurricanes, who take great pride in how well they manage to play while down a man.

What is even more impressive is that Carolina has the best penalty kill, all while having the most shorthanded time per game on average among the entire league.

However, this simply won’t cut it in the playoffs, because no matter how good you may be on the PK, eventually one of those chances is going to bite you.

This is probably, legitimately, the one area where the Canes need to improve the most in the second half of the season because you can’t be taking four to five penalties in a playoff game.

The Hurricanes are also the only team in the top four to even be one of the top-10 PK teams with the Panthers, Avalanche and Lightning all being at or below league average.

The rest of the playoff teams run the gamut from having eight of the top-10 units to some in the bottom half and even into the low 20s.

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The Hurricanes have a top-5 offense, a top-10 power play, elite level goaltending and the number one PK halfway through the season. They grade out very well in comparison to the rest of the playoff teams with their only real shortcoming being the quality that they give up defensively.

There are some really good teams this season, a statement backed by both data and actual results, but if the Canes can stay consistent, they should be able to hold their own against anybody.

Data collected from NHL games up to 2/7/22
Data from NHL.com, NaturalStatTrick.com, MoneyPuck.com