Here we are Ladies and Gentlemen, its hockey time again!!!!
I am going to try my first shot at predicting performances.
A few other sources have taken their shot at team performance:
https://evolving-hockey.com/blog/2023-2024-team-point-projections/
https://theathletic.com/4927969/2023/10/05/carolina-hurricanes-season-preview-2023-24/
Evolving hockey (EH) is predicting the Canes earn 114.7 points and The Athletic's Dom L predicted the Canes earn 107.7 points. The EH prediction would seem to be more in line with the Canes' previous three seasons. In 22-23 the Canes earned 113 points, the 21-22 season the Canes earned 116 points, and in the 21 season the Canes earned a 117 point pace over their 56 games.
The Canes added a roster difference maker and the best free agent in Dmitry Orlov who is predicted to bring similar metrics to Pesce in both points and defensive metrics. Then we add in Dmitry is playing on the 3rd pairing and PP2 which should decrease his expected GA and increase his expected GF.
Teams' O and D performance over the last 3 seasons:
Lets look at how last season's 113 points stacked up against the previous 2 seasons.
| per 60 | | All Strengths | Even Strength | Power Play | | PK | ||||||||||||
| Seasons | GF | GA | xGF | xGA | GF | GA | xGF | xGA | GF | GA | xGF | xGA | GF | GA | xGF | xGA |
| 2021 | 3.07 | 2.35 | 3.08 | 2.55 | 2.64 | 2.14 | 2.88 | 2.39 | 10.12 | 1.2 | 7.13 | 1.34 | 1.38 | 5.11 | 1.7 | 4.99 |
| 21-22 | 3.34 | 2.41 | 3.43 | 2.76 | 3.23 | 2.37 | 3.31 | 2.66 | 8.3 | 0.49 | 7.91 | 0.99 | 0.5 | 4.23 | 1.02 | 5.03 |
| 22-23 | 3.15 | 2.52 | 3.56 | 2.64 | 2.9 | 2.38 | 3.28 | 2.33 | 7.11 | 0.85 | 8.59 | 0.91 | 1.51 | 5.51 | 1.35 | 7.23 |
| Average | 3.19 | 2.43 | 3.36 | 2.65 | 2.92 | 2.30 | 3.16 | 2.46 | 8.51 | 0.85 | 7.88 | 1.08 | 1.13 | 4.95 | 1.36 | 5.75 |
While your head hurts looking at all those numbers, I want to draw your attention to GF and xGF for all strengths and and even strengths. Last season was an different from the previous two seasons with our under performance of actual versus predicted. The previous two seasons we were within 0.01 and 0.09 of the expected, respectively. Last season we were a full 0.41. That is 4 times the previous two seasons combined. I dont predict that we will have that level of deviation from the two metrics, especially a 4 week stretch like we did the 4 weeks before Black Friday where we had a -17 in goal versus expected differential.
22-23 and 23-24 Roster Comparison
The Canes lost Ghost, Puljujarvi, Stepan, Statsny, Patches, CdH, and Kase from last year's team. Those 7 added 22 goals and 38 assists.
We have replaced them with full time Jack Drury, Bunting, Orlov, and DeAngelo without considering any trade deadline acquisition we may make. Bunting likely replaces all of that production on his own. Deangelo and the other 2 should be addition production from last year's team with increased production from a healthy Svechnikov, Jarvis, Aho (who had a down year) and Turbo.
Predictions
I believe we increase our goal scoring by 40 goals in all strengths over last season with our replacements over last season's production and the likely increase in production from the 4 previously mentioned roster players.
Leading points producer: Aho with 85 points
Second points producer: Necas with 78
Leading goal scorer: Aho with 38
Second goal scorer: Svech with 36
Top scoring defender: Burns with 68
Goalies with battle for the top goalie tandem again this season
Total goals : greater than 300, 303-308
Totals goals allowed: less than 200, 190-195
Standing points: 120
The defense is going to be stout and we could challenge Boston's 125+ goal differential from last season.
What Will Stand in the Way?
What is likely to cause the predictions to be wrong?
1. I am not good at this
2. Health. We have had issues with that in goal and key forwards
3. Bunting and Orlov struggle with the new team
4. guys dont increase production as expected.
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