Replacing Pesce? If Yes, then who?

I will be utilizing the Evolving Hockey's (EVH) contract projections and use their tool about Quality of Competition (QoC) to determine players who play a similar game to compare the best potential replacement for Pesce.

It isnt a guarantee that the Canes will move their shutdown RHD who had his best season defensively according to metrics like GSVA, who was in the 86th percentile for defense. Some of that has to do with how dominate Carolina as a whole on defense and controlling puck. Despite taking some the hardest assignments he was on the ice for a corsi for of over 58%, a GF% of 54%, a xGF% 57% according to Naturalstattrick. His contract value was at 10.1 million according to Dom L's GSVA.

Pesce, according to EVH, would be expected to get a 6 x 6.6 or a 7 x 6.8 million deal next year when the cap jumps to 87.5 million.

Who can stack up to Pesce that is in the FA market?

The top RHD names left in the market are Scott Mayfield, Kevin Shattenkirk, Connor Clifton, Gudas, and Luke Schenn. I look at EVH's QoC numbers to understand who can take on a similar role.

Pesce played against QoC a little over 29% of his ice time. While none of those available names we also at 29%, Luke Schenn and Mayfield were within 1% of Pesce. Clifton and Gudas were a percentage point below Pesce. Shattenkirk was slightly above Clifton and Gudas. Now looking at their results,

Schenn performed well when using EVH's metrics with Pesce but poorly in defensive metrics in The Athletic's GSVA model. Likely this is due to Schenn getting a penalty being on Vancouver's team for most of the season. Schenn's GSVA numbers went up in his short time with Toronto.

Mayfield favored well in both sets of metrics with Pesce. Although Mayfield provides very little offense, even less than Pesce.

Gudas and Clifton were near Pesce's level according to GSVA but lacked on the EVH's metrics. Shattenkirk did not perform well all around but likely took a big penalty playing for Anaheim. Again they are putting up those metrics playing against lesser QoC that Pesce.

Now we will look at possible trade candidates. Disclaimer: I cant possibly cover all trade possibilities. The likely names to surface are Dylan DeMelo of Winnipeg, Peeke of Columbus and Ristolanien of Philly.

All 4 are with 1% of each other in playing against QoC. Peeke is by far the worst in GSVA. Risto is next and DeMelo was the most valuable.

DeMelo is a shutdown machine who doesnt provide much offense. Risto, before you explode about how bad he is, was actually pretty good defensively this passed season. Torts has transformed his defensive game by getting him to play more defense and chasing less hits. It did wonders for his positioning and shutting down other offenses. Risto's offensive numbers were awful but how much of that is a penalty because he plays for Philly and Torts or that Torts was transforming his defensive game and he was likely to struggle elsewhere? TDA had an Offensive GSVA over 30 last season and this season under 1. Peeke is all potential at this point, he has had poor metrics when being asked to do too much on a poor Columbus team.

Lastly we will look at Chatfield: I know it is easy to say play Chatfield. Chatty did well with his GSVA values and had a contract value at a Connor Clifton or Gudas level. He underperformed Pesce in the EVH metrics while playing against easier competition.

My order of options based on the names presented:

1. Scott Mayfield

2. Dylan DeMelo (only 2nd because it wont cost assets to get Mayfield)

3. Risto

4. Schenn

5. Clifton

6. Gudas

7. Shattenkirk

8. Chatfield

9. Peeke

Lets compare the top 3:

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Thing to consider, acquisition cost. Mayfield is likely the best RHD left on the UFA market and DeMelo will likely be the best RHD available via trade
with only one year left on his deal. Thoughts?

*sorry about the picture sizes, I couldnt figure out how to make them smaller.