In my previous segment of deep diving the possibility of a trade, seen here: https://www.canescountry.com/2023/7/28/23811873/where-to-now-a-deep-dive-of-options ,
the take aways were:
- a 1 for 1 trade will be very difficult due to interested parties and modified trade clauses
- A 3 way trade seems more likely but are more difficult to pull off
- We will have plenty of cap space at the deadline, between the equivalent of 5.8 and 6.3 million AAV cap hit depending number of days Kochetkov and Lemieux aren’t on the roster
Let’s look at possible trades and possible timelines
1 to 1 team trade option:
Carolina receives RW/C Sam Reinhart and LHD Josh Mahura
Florida receives LHD Brady Skjei and LW/RW Stepan Noesen
canes would add 1.4 million in cap with this deal. That makes the cap tighter for Carolina but it is still doable.
Why Florida does it:
they have 2 top 4 defenders out for the foreseeable future on LTIR. Adding Skjei would be ideal to help them bridge the gap until Ekblad and Montour make it back. The defense will be really good once those 2 return.
Why florida says no:
their defense is lefty only at the moment with the 2 righties out. A righty might be preferred. Subtracting Reinhart is less than ideal and I doubt this package generates enough interest to do so. Carolina is unlikely to part with a better offensive player to make it work due to Reinhart’s age and likely contract cost.
why Carolina says yes:
They add a righty who scores, is better at defense than Necas, and can add pretty good RH FO numbers. Reinhart scored 31 last season yet his GFs number was still below expected.
Why Carolina says no:
there isn’t much reason to do so.
Verdict: unlikely it works as Florida is trading from a place of real weakness but maybe it would if Tatar was willing to sign cheap in Florida to replace some of the offense lost by trading Reinhart.
3 team trade:
Car receives LW Debrusk
Boston receives: center (Lindholm, Henrique, Backlund)
3rd team receives: Futures from Carolina and, if needed, futures from Boston
Boston says yes: Boston needs centers badly. Hard to imagine them getting into the postseason with Zacha at 1C.
Boston says no: Outside of Lindholm is there a center worth losing DeBrusk for? Boston may be forced to with no cap space after Swayman and Frederick get their deals.
Carolina says yes: they get another roster player for futures, granted they would need to move a defender to make room
Carolina says no: depending on the price for Debrusk, i don’t see why they would
verdict: this deal makes sense but it is very hard to pull off because 3 teams have to agree on the prospects and picks moving. Its hard enough to get 2 teams to agree.
Wait to the deadline for a rental:
Canes generally go with cheaper rentals.
There will be a few names available in our range this year: Nino, Perron, Beauviller, etc.
this makes sense as the team will be good enough to win the Metro during the regular season, it allows us to keep a stout roster, and then add a middle 6 forward to help with scoring.
Wait for the deadline to add a player with 1 more year on the contract:
The Canes have targeted a player who would be on the roster for 2 playoff runs instead of 1. Names we have heard in the past, Skjei, Trocheck, JT Miller, Lindholm, etc. The Canes dont value spending big on true rentals. If we can get 1.25 seasons for a player for top value instead of 25% of one season, it just makes sense. There are a lot of good names here.
Lets explore some names of possible players on expected teams to miss the playoffs:
RW Nickolaj Ehlers: dude has speed on top of speed and a top end scorer when healthy with a good cap hit.
Reason to avoid: he has serious injury issues.
LW Andrew Mangiapane: a good 2LW who is a great match for our system with a good cap hit.
Reason to avoid: he is a depth scoring type but has streaks of scoring.
LW Pavel Buchnevich: advanced stat darling and a really good scorer lately.
Reason to avoid: his price is going to be large but it may be worth it.
RW Travis Konecny: he had a great season under Torts, which isn’t easy, with a good cap hit, and forechecks well.
Reason to avoid: he is another smaller guy
RW Reilly Smith: even with Pittsburgh unlikely to make the playoffs and going down hill, i don’t they sell non rental roster players to hold onto a little hope for the next season.
The cost is likely a higher prospect and a 1st round pick for players like Smith. The price for Mangiapane and Ehlers could be in this range if the players have their typical years. Both could higher than that in the 3 good pieces range like Buchnevich and Konecny if they go back to their better year productions. A Buchnevich type could cost a 1st, a Trikizov level prospect and a philly 2nd type deal. The prices go up if any of the previous put up a PPG year.
Of course that is dependent on the team willing to move a longer term asset.
Overall
The team is good enough to wait until the deadline and that makes the most sense.
The best roster altering forwards are in the last group. The only top end rental forwards likely available at the deadline are Guentzel, Scheifele, and Lindholm. The competition for those three will be high.
The best course of action is to stay in our rental range or go get one of these bigger names with an extra year of control.
let me know what you think about the options or other names.
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